
I seriously doubt much will come of it other than a bunch of protester casualties and the government giving in to the demands that are easiest to fulfill - nobody honestly expects a revolution. The police are well armed and very good at using violence control protesters. But, for that reason the vast majority of Egyptians don't protest, and the huge turnout says something about how tired people are of the economic and political circumstances, and how they're emboldened by Tunisia. Their requests aren't unreasonable, like a new minimum wage: the current one has been LE 35 (less than $7) since the mid-80s, and it's completely unlivable - a half gallon of milk, for example, costs $2. Of course most people make more than the minimum wage, but it were reset to reflect today's cost of living, the pitiful salaries would have to go up. People also want unemployment relief, the resignation of the interior minister, and an end to torture.
Almost all the offices in Cairo were closed Tuesday for Police Day so I stayed home and it was quiet in my neighborhood. While internet and phone cuts have been reported, I still had service. On Tuesday I went back to work, and they sent home all the women just after noon. I had been planning to sneak out around 1pm for the other office so I just went then. Around 6:15, rumors spread of a 7pm curfew, and my boss insisted on driving me and Maysaa (the only one of three other girls who had deemed it safe to come in) home. I later heard that there wasn't a curfew, or it hadn't been enforced. While obviously there's been an enormous amount of activity on the streets, it really feels like I would have never known that anything was going on if friends and coworkers hadn't been talking about it. I guess that's what comes from living and working on the other side of the river.
Here's my assessment of the political situation in Egypt: Mubarak is ancient, has been ruling the country for decades and he do
es virtually nothing - except cut deals with businessmen. He's been grooming his son Hosni (who doesn't have any political experience) to replace him, so there's no reason to expect anything to change. The elections are rigged and the country has been operating under emergency law for over a decade, which gives them the right to arrest anybody and imprison them without trial for as long as they like. The vast majority of people are poor, really poor. But there isn't anybody for the people to rally behind - people who do attempt to run against Mubarak tend to end up in prison. The most palatable option for president, Muhamed ElBaradei, has never publically announced an intention to run. The Muslim Brotherhood does a lot of behind the scenes community work - they give food and clothing to the poor, they build schools and mosques. They're actually the majority party in the assembly, but as they're banned they all run as independents. Analysts think that the Brotherhood is too fragmented internally to put up a solid political front, or even establish a leader.
One of the major factors holding Egypt back from revolution, in my opinion, is Islam. Most everyday Egyptians are deeply religious, and Islam has a pretty fatalistic outlook. People trust in God to provide and accept their circumstances as his will. I think that makes them loathe to take power struggles into their own hands. More secular people almost always come from the upper class, and as they have their hands in the government's pocket, they're pretty content with the status quo. As far as international relations are concern, Mubarak has the best relationship with Israel of any Arab nation, and the US provides Egypt with a huge amount of aid (the second-most of all countries) and has made it quite clear that they don't want power to change hands. Except if it's peaceful. And it's hard to see how can happen in a country where the elections are fixed.

es virtually nothing - except cut deals with businessmen. He's been grooming his son Hosni (who doesn't have any political experience) to replace him, so there's no reason to expect anything to change. The elections are rigged and the country has been operating under emergency law for over a decade, which gives them the right to arrest anybody and imprison them without trial for as long as they like. The vast majority of people are poor, really poor. But there isn't anybody for the people to rally behind - people who do attempt to run against Mubarak tend to end up in prison. The most palatable option for president, Muhamed ElBaradei, has never publically announced an intention to run. The Muslim Brotherhood does a lot of behind the scenes community work - they give food and clothing to the poor, they build schools and mosques. They're actually the majority party in the assembly, but as they're banned they all run as independents. Analysts think that the Brotherhood is too fragmented internally to put up a solid political front, or even establish a leader.One of the major factors holding Egypt back from revolution, in my opinion, is Islam. Most everyday Egyptians are deeply religious, and Islam has a pretty fatalistic outlook. People trust in God to provide and accept their circumstances as his will. I think that makes them loathe to take power struggles into their own hands. More secular people almost always come from the upper class, and as they have their hands in the government's pocket, they're pretty content with the status quo. As far as international relations are concern, Mubarak has the best relationship with Israel of any Arab nation, and the US provides Egypt with a huge amount of aid (the second-most of all countries) and has made it quite clear that they don't want power to change hands. Except if it's peaceful. And it's hard to see how can happen in a country where the elections are fixed.

Lindsey thinks that the government will have to do something to appease the protesters. My boss Nahed gently mocked the recommencement of demonstrations on Wednesday night, saying that people came home from work and realized that nothing had changed. She guesses that the government will make a big deal of firing a few ministers ("and what's the difference, none of them do anything anyway!") and once they've got a scapegoat everyone things will calm down.
So, there's reason to hope for small changes, but I wouldn't expect any Tunisia-style power shifts. And honestly, while life in a dictatorship is tough - especially for those who get on Mubarak's wrong side - there's not much reason to believe that a new government would yield a more democratic nation.
So, there's reason to hope for small changes, but I wouldn't expect any Tunisia-style power shifts. And honestly, while life in a dictatorship is tough - especially for those who get on Mubarak's wrong side - there's not much reason to believe that a new government would yield a more democratic nation.
In case you want to learn more, here are a few good links:
The first day (Tuesday) - The Guardian has a lot of solid coverage
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jan/25/egypt-protests-mubarak
The first day (Tuesday) - The Guardian has a lot of solid coverage
http://www.guardian.co.uk/
Lindsey's blog, here's her account of Wednesday
http://lpinthefield.wordpress.com/2011/01/26/egypts-unrest-protests-continue-for-second-day/
A gawker page that's not great but has a video that was filmed across the street from my old apartment in Garden City
http://gawker.com/5743556/whats-going-on-in-egypt
Check back soon - Lindsey's trying to drag me to the protest tomorrow night!
http://lpinthefield.wordpress.
A gawker page that's not great but has a video that was filmed across the street from my old apartment in Garden City
http://gawker.com/5743556/
Check back soon - Lindsey's trying to drag me to the protest tomorrow night!


